Saturday, May 31, 2014

SLIM JIM

I got my NC driver's license in August of 1962, one day after my 16th birthday.  It was the most liberating feeling I have probably ever had!  I had wanted my driver's license since I was a small child.  I was obsessed with driving!  The very next month, I would be exiled to a boarding school in another state a couple of hours away.  I would be brutally ripped out of an element that I had prepared my whole life to conquer, only to be thrust into an alien world that would be utterly unimpressed with my careful planning, and no automobiles to use.  I was determined, however, to live as much of my life as possible in the three weeks or so that were left.

I had passed the ubiquitous parallel-parking obstacle in the driver's license test and was thus unleashed on the innocent planet!  My mother had a 1960 Oldsmobile 88 station wagon, one of the largest vehicles ever built!  It also had a very large, powerful V-8 engine!  Therefore, one balmy summer day I was demonstrating for one of my evil friends a major discovery: how to manipulate the "Slim-Jim" Hydramatic transmission in that Olds to make it "get rubber" like a manual-shift!!  It first required mashing the shit out of the accelerator, pushing the car really fast, then taking one's foot completely OFF the accelerator just as the transmission is shifting from a lower gear to a higher gear!  As there is a momentary neutral pause between gears, I then would slam my foot back down on the accelerator and hold it firmly in place!  That would cause the very powerful and big engine to scream loudly in that momentary neutral then, as the next gear catches, the car would lurch forward with a roar and, sometimes, squeal the tires!  It was fantastic!  For some stupid reason, there was only one exhaust pipe on that car, all of its 8 cylinders having to push their burnt fuel gases out a single tailpipe that would make a vicious hissing sound like a jet plane taking off!  It was SO gratifying to my 16-year-old ears!

Well, as an unindicted co-conspirator, I was enjoying these manifestations so much!  My evil friends were horribly bad influences on me; they would encourage the WORST in me!  As we roared down the long straight stretch along the local golf course that day, we were 
laughing maniacally!  A woman on the golf course asked my MOTHER if that was not her car roaring down the road!  They were out there playing golf, I was showing off most horribly right in front of my mother's eyes!  With her car!  Duh!  Needless to say, when Mom got home, she ate my ass alive!  It was all my friends' fault!

I think I now understand why I was put into boarding school.



Monday, May 19, 2014

BODY-WASH OPERAS

(E-mail sent to several friends recently.)


When I was a kid growing up in NE North Carolina, my parents' house was in some sort of electromagnetic "dead zone" such that we could receive only one TV station out of Norfolk, originally an NBC affiliate that changed, in the mid-1950's, to CBS.  Consequently, whenever I was home sick, there was only a bunch of CBS soap operas to watch on TV, and I would mindlessly stare at the TV screen while they were running as "white noise" for my healing comfort.  The gallons of chicken noodle soup that I consumed were no help.  At an early age I determined that soap operas were utter crap not to be taken seriously, and certainly not to be watched by intelligent people.  Serious actors, however, have said that their time on soap operas was great for their careers, steady work, good pay and intensely serious acting.

The problem with all soap operas, though, especially for one weaned on cowboy or detective drama that was always utterly resolved in less than 30 minutes, is that soap operas were NEVER resolved!  Nothing ever seemed to get finished!

So, fast-forward to the HBO and PBS offerings in the late-20th and early-21st Centuries, and to those of us now addicted to the likes of "The Sopranos," "Tombstone," "Boardwalk Empire," "Game of Thrones," "Downton Abbey" and "Mr. Selfridge."  Most of us fail to recognize that we are addicted to what I would call these "body-wash operas," "body-wash" being just a fancy name for liquid "soap."  The aforesaid dramatic offerings which have garnered large followings are just as unresolved as the "soaps" of the 1950'as and 1960's.  The newer offerings being high-minded or vulgar or murderous or sexually explicit is no excuse.

And, being a scum-sucking hypocrite, I am just as addicted now to these latest offerings as were our predecessors to the early TV "soaps."  So, it was with great sadness that I had to part company last night with Season Two of "Mr. Selfridge," the fictionalized PBS drama about the founding of the great department store in London, "Selfridge's."  When I realized that was the "finale" for Season Two, I felt an emptiness, a loneliness thereafter that might be matched only by the death of a loved pet or even a family member.  What crap!  I embarrass myself!  But, will that prevent me from tuning in Season Three if/when it returns?  I doubt it.

I spent Sunday afternoon away, then raced home so that I could watch last week's final rerun of "Game of Thrones" (which I had repeatedly missed) at 8 PM on HBO, followed by the two-hour "Mr. Selfridge" finale above-mentioned on PBS.  That was three full hours of narcotic fixation, interrupted only by one most undesirable, annoying phone call.  As PBS does not do "reruns," I had determined to watch "Mr. Selfridge" at 9 PM and postpone my further narcotic satisfaction with the conflicting new episode of "Game of Thrones" until later in the week, since it will rerun almost every night.  Now, with "Mr. Selfridge" gone, I regret I shall have to make do with only "Game of Thrones" until "Boardwalk Empire" and/or "Downton Abbey" start up again.  My life is so empty and meaningless!

For anyone reading this who has managed to avoid these programs, I shall say only that you are doing SOMETHING right!  Stay away!  Do not come close, or you WILL be sucked in, never to be released.  And, DON'T bother to call on Sunday nights!


Monday, May 12, 2014

LIES, DAMNED LIES & STATISTICS!

Many folks are sick by now of reading my diatribes about the pathetic economic malaise that has persisted for years.  I have opined that the lack of spending money and market DEMAND among the hoi polloi is a much bigger factor than taxes laid upon wealthier folks, who are stupidly and dishonestly referred to as "job creators" (so, Spunky, where are the jobs?).  Nothing could be further from the truth, but that bit of conventional "wisdom" has stuck like glue among most politicians, INCLUDING many feckless Dems!  I believe that anyone who is not conversant with basic economic market theory is going to be an abject fool when it comes to forming accurate concepts about how markets really work.  Many Republicans will intentionally distort the operation of market forces and many Dems will simply ignore them.

As I said, I have been pissing and moaning my opinions now for some time, but until now I haven't had much solid data to back my observations up--just my gut reactions, primarily based upon my observations in the record business.  Today, I discovered the US Bureau of Census Median (midpoint) and Mean (avg.) household income stats by region, at: 


Here are the most recent extractions for 13 years:

Table H-6.  Regions--All Races by Median and Mean Income: 1975 to 2012
(Households as of March of the following year.  Income in current and 2012 CPI-U-RS adjusted dollars (28))
Region and year
Number (thousands)
Median income
Mean income
Current dollars
2012 dollars
Current dollars
2012 dollars
2012
122,459
51,017
51,017
71,274
71,274
2011
121,084
50,054
51,100
69,677
71,133
2010 (37)
119,927
49,276
51,892
67,392
70,970
2009 (36)
117,538
49,777
53,285
67,976
72,767
2008
117,181
50,303
53,644
68,424
72,968
116,783
50,233
55,627
67,609
74,869
2006
116,011
48,201
54,892
66,570
75,810
2005
114,384
46,326
54,486
63,344
74,502
2004 (35)
113,343
44,334
53,891
60,466
73,501
2003
112,000
43,318
54,079
59,067
73,741
2002
111,278
42,409
54,127
57,852
73,837
2001
109,297
42,228
54,766
58,208
75,491
2000 (30)
108,209
41,990
55,987
57,135
76,180


It should be noted that the averages (means) in Table H-6 are much higher than the medians.  This would happen because the averages must take into account those households with really high incomes.  It is the principle illustrated by Bill Gates walking into a roomful of homeless people, and the average per-person income immediately shoots way up, but it will drop just as soon as Bill Gates leaves the room, and the others will remain no better off.  Such averages are almost worthless as data.

The median incomes are better stats for comparison, because a "median" is a true mid-point: half below and half above.  Note, that in a household getting $51,017 annually, if there are two adult earners therein, each is "averaging" only $25K or so!  That ain't chicken-feed!

The measured median household incomes has risen slowly from almost $42K in 2000 to $51K in 2012.  That is an "average" of about 6.9% a year.


The following table shows the percentage shares of aggregate income distribution by brackets.  The 5 fifths listed add up to 100%:
4 to 5.









Table H-2.  Share of Aggregate Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent of Households, All Races:  1967 to 2012

(Households as of March of the following year)


Year
Number (thousands)
Shares of aggregate income

Lowest fifth
Second fifth
Third fifth
Fourth fifth
Highest fifth
Top 5 percent



2012
  122,459 
  3.2 
  8.3 
  14.4 
  23.0 
  51.0 
  22.3 

2011
  121,084 
  3.2 
  8.4 
  14.3 
  23.0 
  51.1 
  22.3 

2010 (37)
  119,927 
  3.3 
  8.5 
  14.6 
  23.4 
  50.3 
  21.3 

2009 (36)
  117,538 
  3.4 
  8.6 
  14.6 
  23.2 
  50.3 
  21.7 

2008
  117,181 
  3.4 
  8.6 
  14.7 
  23.3 
  50.0 
  21.5 

2007
  116,783 
  3.4 
  8.7 
  14.8 
  23.4 
  49.7 
  21.2 

2006
  116,011 
  3.4 
  8.6 
  14.5 
  22.9 
  50.5 
  22.3 

2005
  114,384 
  3.4 
  8.6 
  14.6 
  23.0 
  50.4 
  22.2 

2004 (35)
  113,343 
  3.4 
  8.7 
  14.7 
  23.2 
  50.1 
  21.8 

2003
  112,000 
  3.4 
  8.7 
  14.8 
  23.4 
  49.8 
  21.4 

2002
  111,278 
  3.5 
  8.8 
  14.8 
  23.3 
  49.7 
  21.7 

2001
  109,297 
  3.5 
  8.7 
  14.6 
  23.0 
  50.1 
  22.4 

2000 (30)
  108,209 
  3.6 
  8.9 
  14.8 
  23.0 
  49.8 
  22.1 










Note that the higher the income bracket, the larger the share.  The top 5% share of 22.3% is included in the 51% of the "highest fifth."  So, the top 5% has 22.3% of that nut, and the other 15% have the remaining 28.7%; thus, 49% of the remaining aggregate income is shared among 80% of US households!


The following table shows the actual average incomes shared by each fifth of the households.  The top fifth's average is almost $182K, yet the top 5% within that bracket average $318K!  That means the other 95% of that highest 20% of households pull down that top 5% figure to "only" $182K!   One should compare these numbers with the median household income (Table H-6) for 2012 of $51,017 which, as one can see, hits within the "third fifth" bracket below.  The following table also shows that 40% of US households received less than $30K gross last year, while the top 5% got over $318K.


Table H-3.  Mean Household Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent, All Races:  1967 to 2012
(Households as of March of the following year.  Income in current and 2012 CPI-U-RS adjusted dollars (29))
Year
Lowest fifth
Second fifth
Third fifth
Fourth fifth
Highest fifth
Top 5 percent
Current Dollars
2012
  11,490 
  29,696 
  51,179 
  82,098 
  181,905 
  318,052 
2011
11,239
29,204
49,842
80,080
178,020
  311,444 
2010 (37)
10,994
28,532
49,167
78,877
169,391
287,201
2009 (36)
11,552
29,257
49,534
78,694
170,844
295,388
2008
11,656
29,517
50,132
79,760
171,057
294,709
2007
11,551
29,442
49,968
79,111
167,971
287,191
2006
11,352
28,777
48,223
76,329
168,170
297,405
2005
10,655
27,357
46,301
72,825
159,583
281,155
2004 (35)
10,244
26,212
44,411
70,026
151,438
263,896
2003
9,996
25,678
43,588
68,994
147,078
253,239
2002
9,990
25,400
42,802
67,326
143,743
251,010
2001
10,136
25,468
42,629
66,839
145,970
260,464
2000 (30)
10,157
25,361
42,233
65,653
142,269
252,400

These numbers clearly demonstrate my repeated observations that the bulk of the population is losing spending money to the wealthier classes who simply don't spend much money.  That lack of SPENDING is clearly responsible for our economic malaise for the past several years!

The recently reported rise in the stock markets is irrelevant to these numbers because most US households have NOTHING to do with the stock markets!

The OBVIOUS solution is to "redistribute" some of that wealth imbalance through the power of taxation to funnel more spending money to the less wealthy households.

NOT because the wealthy should be punished!  But because their investments and the economy generally will degrade further over the long term if the bulk of the ordinary people do not have spending money!

As I have said many, many times, there is NO SUCH THING as a "supply-side" market--ALL markets are DEMAND-DRIVEN!  It should be obvious that there must be a demand for things before a market for sellers of those things will exist!

So, you can decide for yourself if any of this makes any difference.  I must confess my knowledge and appreciation of late English Prime Minister Benjamin D'Israeli's overriding observation about there being 3 kinds of lies:  Lies, DAMNED lies and Statistics!